It's going to take a lot of money to pull Full Tilt out of its current mess.

It’s well documented that the Entities Who Comprise Wicked Chops Poker are no math math math majors, but we typically can at least manage simple addition and to a lesser degree, subtraction.

With all of the information that’s come to light recently regarding Full Tilt Poker‘s financial situation–we decided to figure out how much money the (alleged) French investment team that (allegedly) includes Laurent Tapie needs to save buy the company.

After tallying the figures, the mathematical term for our estimated final number is an “assload.”

Or more specifically, around 0-800M.

Here’s why (recap a full summary of the Tilt civil amendment figures here):

So there’s approximately 0M owed to players, a low-end 0-400M DoJ pay-off, and then an additional operational capital investment. That’s 0-800M out the door before you’d see a penny back in return. Ouch.

It’s reasonable to assume the French investors (who, as of Monday, are reportedly getting closer to a deal) try work out a payment arrangement with the DoJ. Whether or not that’s accepted would likely be based on negotiated conditions, including whether or not any seized assets by the Fed effectively count as a “down payment” on the total settlement. So potentially that 0-800M isn’t 100% needed up-front on Day 1, or could be reduced some based on what’s already be seized.

But then again–maybe not.

Considering that Full Tilt lost around 50% of its market on 4/15, and that consumer confidence in Europe will erode some more of its base–hopefully the French team looking to drop this potential 0-800M has a Winston Wolf (or a Bob) in their back pocket to make that money back.

So there are still a lot of “ifs” for this deal to happen. But our hope for the poker community’s sake is that the French team has the war chest, gets the DoJ on board, pays players back, and brings Tilt (or whatever it’ll be called in the future) back to prominence. If they can do that, we’ll never make another joke about French capitulation again. We’ll cease all the WWII French jokes in general, in fact.

Publicly at least.

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'You got anything to say?' 'Nope. I got nothing.'

Full Tilt Poker had a hearing on Tuesday with the Alderney Gambling Control Commission (AGCC) about reinstating its license.

The end result: a whole lotta nothing.

The Full Tilt legal team began the proceedings by requesting that no media be present and that all discussions happen behind closed doors. According to FlopTurnRiver, Tilt attorney Martin Heslop said, “It is not in the interest of justice that this should be aired in public. There is a real risk that it may be detrimental to these interests and highly prejudicial to this decision,” and that “highly commercially sensitive information” needed to be discussed that could have a “highly damaging effect” on the company if the hearings were done publicly (read in full here).

The meeting went behind closed doors temporarily, then returned again publicly, with the AGCC determining that it was “in [the] best interests of FTP customers” to give Tilt until “no later than September 15th [2011]” to get their potential deal in order. So proceedings were suspended until when/if that happens.

Our quick analysis: every day that Tilt doesn’t have a license is another day it loses revenue. Every day that it loses revenue, the value of the company (and its brand, and consumer confidence in its brand) drops. While with so little information we can’t necessarily say that today was a “disaster” for the company, nothing happened today that can really be classified as “positive” either.

There have been fewer leaks coming from our Full Tilt sources over the past few weeks, which either means that, A) a deal is getting really close and everyone is in lockdown, or B) this. While we hope it’s A and that A involves a plan to pay U.S players back, we’re not betting against B at this stage.

Sadly, had Ray Bitar and team just accepted the first Ivey White KnightTM deal in May, there’s a pretty good chance U.S. players would have their money back by now (or, at a minimum, a plan would be in place to do so).

Instead, in every possible way, we’re still just getting a whole lotta nothing from the company.

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Ray Bitar and Full Tilt Poker face some tough decisions this week.

With the Alderney hearings ready to begin (listen as it happens here), we’re looking at a big 24 hour period coming up for Full Tilt Poker. Let’s review some of the latest rumors.

EGR Magazine last week reported from an “inside source” that a mysterious group of European investors were only looking to acquire the “good assets” of Full Tilt (read the article in full here). This has caused some forum and Twitter speculation that Tilt would get to keep operating their business (even if under a new name) and potentially stiff U.S. players.

Keep in mind, EGR has erroneously reported on other major Full Tilt news (which to be fair, we all have–although more on that later), so take that info with a grain of salt. While any potential investor would probably like to only purchase the good assets, don’t count on that happening for two major reasons.

First, if Full Tilt hoses U.S. players, any reputable gaming authority, like the Alderney Gambling Control Commission (AGCC), or any disreputable one, like the KGC, would not reinstate Tilt’s license. It would completely submarine the reputation of the Commission. There would be too much pressure from the other companies licensed by the Commission against such actions, as it would call into question the legitimacy of their licenses.

Problem number two is the DoJ will still need to bless whatever deal Tilt does. If Tilt management is stubborn/arrogant enough to believe they can just dump the good assets and stiff U.S. players and the DoJ out of cash (which, actually and sadly, they might be) then the net of indictments would absolutely widen. Or better put, the Professor and Jesus better look good in orange.

As with everything Full Tilt related, the situation is fluid, and well, you know.

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Watch Mike Matusow Is Very Angry at Russ Hamilton on RawVegas.tvMike Matusow speaks his mind. They don’t call him “The Mouth” for nothing.

A few years ago, Matusow was the first major pro who really spoke out against Russ Hamilton (above, classic). He was right on for doing so, even if some pros questioned his story.

This week, Matusow took on Phil Ivey during an interview on The Hardcore Poker Show, who he called a “piece of shit” for suing Tiltware (below clip).

This time, while Mikey’s anger is valid, it’s directed at the wrong people associated with Full Tilt. Phil Ivey isn’t the one who didn’t mix player and operational funds. And Phil Ivey wasn’t the one who turned down a potential deal that could’ve paid back U.S. players and made the company financial viable again.

Not saying that Ivey is a saint, but with dissension in the ranks at Tilt, he’s not the one anger should really be directed at right now.

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